Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
